T20 World Cup 2021: Team balance in focus as Kohli-Dhoni combo look to end India's ICC trophy drought

It's that time of the year. An ICC global tournament is on the horizon. Excitement is in the air. India are one of the favourites for the title, again. But can they actually go on and win the whole thing?

The last time India won an ICC trophy was eight years ago when they lifted the 2013 Champions trophy. MS Dhoni, arguably the greatest white-ball captain India has produced, was leading the side. He had already won the 2007 World T20 and 2011 World Cup. And is the only international captain to have three ICC trophies in his cabinet. But since that Champions Trophy win, India haven't won an ICC title.

India have achieved a lot of success under Virat Kohli in all three formats. However, the one thing that's eluded him is the ICC trophy. India haven't somehow managed to get past the finish line. Since taking over as full-time captain, India under Kohli in ICC global events have: Finished as runners-up in the 2017 Champions Trophy, semi-finalists in 2019 World Cup and runners-up in the inaugural World Test Championship.

Kohli will be stepping down as the captain of the T20I side after the tournament and would be looking to go out on a high with that trophy in his hand. And for that, he will have the helping hand of Dhoni inside the dressing room. After having retired from international cricket last year, Dhoni is back again with the Indian team, as a mentor for the T20 World Cup. At 40, he's just won a fourth IPL title with CSK. And that experience of having won the ICC titles and having played in all the editions of the T20 World Cup could be crucial.

"He's always been a mentor for all of us," Kohli said ahead of the tournament. "Just the experience he's gained over the years and just having conversations with him around the game...Such practical inputs. Such intricate details of where the team is going and how we can improve our games by that one or two percent which always makes the difference when he is in the leadership role in any team. His presence will certainly boost the morale of the team even further and give us a lot more confidence than we already have as a team."

Yes, India won the warm-up matches against England and Australia convincingly. Yes, India will head into the T20 World Cup as one of the favourites...but not without concerns.

The balance of the side is one of them. There are other questions that simultaneously pop up as well. Will Hardik Pandya bowl? Should they go in with three pacers and two spinners? Or three spinners and two pacers? Will they pick Hardik purely as a batter if he is not bowling? Who will partner Japsprit Bumrah in the pace department? Can an in-form Ishan Kishan find a place in the starting XI?

Hardik's injury problems have made things a bit complicated. That back problem has meant that he hasn't been bowling of late. He missed a couple of games in the second leg of the IPL and didn't bowl right through the tournament. Rohit Sharma said that Pandya "should be ready any time during the WC, when the WC starts," at the toss of the warm-up match against Australia. However, his comments in general didn't sound too promising.

"He is coming along pretty well," he said. "But it's still going to take time I guess, he hasn't bowled much so when you play in this kind of tournament, you've got to be absolutely fit and 100 percent, in fact, more than 100 percent. He's just getting there, not started bowling yet but hopefully, in the next few days he will start bowling."

Hardik hasn't had much impact with the bat as well of late. In IPL 2021, he averaged just 14.11, his second-lowest in an IPL season. In the Sri Lanka series prior to the second leg of IPL, his scores read 0, 19, 10. Hardik bowling is crucial on many fronts. It gives India a sixth bowling option. If a bowler has an off day, India have no one to go to. This is where the sixth bowler becomes handy. And if India want that sixth bowler, then they will have to bat Shardul at No 7 and go with six bowlers which might weaken the batting line-up slightly. Or they have the option of Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli or Suryakumar Yadav to bowl the part-timers, as Rohit hinted at the toss during the warm-up game against Australia. Kohli even bowled a couple of overs. But it could prove to be a very risky prospect.

Having Hardik bowl also allows India to play three spinners if the conditions are suitable. But again, the question is, even if he does bowl, will India go in with an out-of-form and rusty Hardik Pandya with the bat and ball or opt for another in-form batsman?

A fully-fit Hardik would have been the X-factor in the side.

Coach Ravi Shastri has said that the team balance will depend on the dew factor. If it plays a significant part, a three-pacer, two-spinner strategy might be the way to go.

Will it be the conditions or the numbers that define the combination? India will play four of their five group stage matches at the Dubai International Stadium and stats suggest that the pacers have done better than the spinners at the venue. In the second leg of IPL 2021, the pacers took 105 wickets (5.6 wkts/inns), averaged 25.4, had a SR of 18.8 while the spinners took only 40 wickets (4 wkts/inns), averaged 30.9, struck every 25.5 balls. The one aspect in which spinners were better was the economy rate. They went at 7.3 runs and over compared to the pacers' 8.1.

If we take a longer period, since IPL 2020, the pacers have taken 3.8 wickets/innings, averaged 27, struck every 19.4 balls and conceded 8.4 runs an over at the venue while the spinners have taken 1.7 wickets/innings, averaged 31.4, struck every 25.5 balls and possessed an economy rate of 7.4.

If India go in with two pacers, Mohammed Shami might get the nod ahead of Bhuvneshwar Kumar. He's improved his middle overs and death bowling and was Punjab Kings' most impressive bowler, finishing as their top wicket-taker (fifth-highest overall) with 19 wickets at an average of 20.78 and a decent economy rate of 7.50.

Bhuvneshwar, on the other hand, didn't have the best of time in IPL 2021. It was probably his worst IPL season as he took just six wickets from 11 matches, averaged 55.83 (his worst in an IPL season) and conceded 7.97 runs an over (the worst economy rate of his IPL career). However, if India go in with just two pacers, it will be hard to ignore Shardul Thakur who was included late in the squad from the reserves at the expense of Axar Patel. The Mumbai all-rounder has been an impact player in the last few years, in the international and the IPL stage and was the best pacer in the UAE leg of IPL 2021. He was the leading wicket-taker with 16 wickets and possessed a better economy rate (7.64) than Bumrah.

In the spin department, the mystery and form of Varun Chakaravarthy might gain him the upper hand to partner Ravindra Jadeja over the likes of Rahul Chahar and R Ashwin. But with Ashwin impressing in the warm-up matches, it could go down the wire.

In the batting department, the batting order seems to be set with Kohli saying that Rohit Sharma and KL Rahul will open the batting with him coming in at No 3.

After that blinder of an innings in Mumbai Indians' final match against SRH, Ishan Kishan carried forward the momentum in the warm-up with a 46-ball 70 in India's win over England. He embodies the aggressive approach that Kohli wants to take in T20Is. He will be unlucky if he misses out but such is the competition in the side. It will be interesting to see if India look to fit him in the middle order or as a floater.

The middle-order might compose of Suryakumar Yadav, Rishabh Pant and Hardik.

Ahead of the England series in March this year, Kohli had said that they were looking to move away from the cautious approach to a more free and positive approach. And it was on display in that series. It will be interesting to see whether they will continue with the same style. Kohli had an average IPL this season, averaging 28.92 from 15 innings. But the biggest concern was his strike rate – 119.46. He upped his strike rate in the powerplay at the fag end of the season but he did struggle to get going in the middle overs.

India would need Rohit Sharma, who also had an average IPL 2021 with an average of 29.30, and Kohli to get back to their best. Rohit hitting a 41-ball 60 in the warm-up match against Australia would have soothed some nerves in that Indian camp.

The middle-overs phase is where India might seek improvement. In the 7-15 overs phase, They have the third-worst run-rate (7.8), among the eight teams that qualified directly for Super 12s (Since after the 2019 50-over WC). England have the best with nine. In the bowling as well, they have the joint-worst economy rate of 8.1 in that phase along with England and Pakistan and worst average runs per wicket (31), balls per wicket (23), and boundary percentage (51.64). That is why the sixth bowler becomes crucial. They have been very good with their batting at the death with a second-best run rate of 10.4 and the least dot ball percentage of 27 percent. They've had the second-best economy rate of 8.6 while bowling.

Player to watch out for: Suryakumar Yadav

After knocking on the selection door for quite some time, he broke it open in style with a blistering 34-ball fifty in his debut international innings, against England. He impressed on his ODI debut as well. He's been a consistent performer for Mumbai Indians in the last few years. He can provide the impetus in the powerplay and up the aggression in the middle overs which is going to be a crucial phase on the slow UAE wickets. He is one of the best players of spin bowling as well. He didn't have the best of time in IPL 2021 but showed glimpses of the damage he can inflict with that 40-ball 82 against SRH in Mumbai Indians' final match of the tournament. He played some sumptuous shots in his 27-ball 38 in the warm-up match against Australia. It's his first experience on the world stage and he would be looking to make an impact straight away.

India have been rampant in T20Is having won seven of the nine series in the last two years. They have drawn one and lost one, against Sri Lanka. However, it wasn't the first team that had visited the Island in July this year. Since the 2016 World T20, they have won 45 of the 72 matches played. It will mainly come down to how they handle the pressure on the big stage. They have been lacking that vital push to cross the finish line.

However, they now have a mastermind in Dhoni inside that dressing room, someone who has provided those crucial final pushes in the past and that might just hold them in good stead.

India's fixtures:

24 October - India vs Pakistan 7:30 pm Dubai

31 October – India vs New Zealand – 7:30 pm Dubai

3 November – India vs Afghanistan – 7:30 pm Abu Dhabi

5 November – India vs Scotland – 7:30 pm Dubai

8 November – India vs A2 – 7:30 pm Dubai